International trade has been the punching bag of the global recession. Accustomed for years to leading global growth, trade fell by 11% in 2009 as the global economy shrank 0.6%. A partial revival occurred in the 6-month growth spurt that began last fall, but renewed slowdown has analysts wondering whether this economic episode is a permanent setback for trade and the process of globalization. Is the future of international trade in doubt?

Faith in the global banking system was shattered in late 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Only extraordinary intervention by governments prevented the systemic, cascading bank failures last seen in the 1930’s. Even so, there are lingering questions about the health of banks. They are once again profitable, but are they still vulnerable to shocks? Will bank lending recover, and if so, when?

Like it or not, the world’s consumers are a critical piece of the global recovery puzzle. Without a revival in this key sector, the world economy will remain in neutral. Can we expect this mighty economic engine to fire up soon, or is it more likely to continue drifting for some time to come?

Emerging market titans seem to be flying through economic turbulence with remarkable ease. China has continued to impress onlookers with consistent, double-digit GDP growth. Many see China as an anchor of world growth. So far, so good. But can China keep things going as world growth slows?

Chaotic movements in world economic output gave way to a new phase at mid-year. Suddenly, it seemed that everything got quiet. Far from an antidote to chaos, this is a disquieting quiet, a mid-rebound slowdown that doesn’t normally occur. It’s a shock, and many wonder why it has happened.

It’s easy to get dizzy tracing the recent path of prices. General price movements have oscillated from inflation to disinflation and back again over the past two years. Earlier this year, strong growth rekindled inflation worries in many economies, prompting much discussion about the unwinding of loose monetary conditions, and resulting in tightening actions by various monetary authorities.

May, 2010 was just a few days old when the world economy hit a troubling inflection point. Concerns about the viability of Southern European economies combined with slowing growth to sour recovery hopes. Pundits are now proclaiming modest growth in unison, but commodity markets must have the earplugs in. Prices should be falling, but instead they are going the other way. What’s going on?

If increased technology has any downsides, then a prominent one would have to be information overload. When it comes to the economy, data overload can be a problem, and given current market uncertainty, it seems as if each one of the multitude of indicators is examined in minute detail for the latest clue about the world economy’s movements. Many have a very similar message that is neatly summarized in the OECD leading indicator. What signal is this prescient measure sending?

Markets are hungry for good news, and they gobbled up the second-quarter GDP report for Europe with gusto. The numbers were indeed impressive, and birthed a torrent of econo-chatter about the possibility of an EU-led global recovery. Is this jump in growth the start of something big?

Aside from the occasional news flash, the world’s attention is not usually centred on Central America and the Caribbean (CAC). But this smaller segment of the New World still carries enormous strategic importance, and it significance for the world economy and global international trade is on the rise. Canada is currently well placed to participate in the region’s dynamism.

Gloom abounds in the world economy, and with good reason. Surviving the current episode is critical, but growth eventually will recover, and hopes for longer-term prosperity will brighten. Strategies for success in the coming growth cycle are already being crafted. Is Canada well-placed to succeed?

That famous hole in Wyoming where central bankers and other key economy-watchers convened two weekends ago was a fitting metaphor for the post factum sentiment of delegates. Or at least, the American ones. Sentiments were decidedly gloomy, noteworthy for a group that eschews herd hysterics. The mood was fed by the latest US GDP data, released just a day before the conference.

Corporate profits, volatile at the best of times, are usually the punching bag of recessions. Likewise, as an economy emerges from recession, profits can yield key clues about the durability of recovery. For Canada, this profit cycle is alive and well. What is this prophet saying about near-term prospects?

Last week began with double-barreled news from Japan that grabbed the airwaves. The industrial giant was bumped out of second place among world economies by China. This occurred as growth in Japanese GDP slowed to a crawl in the second quarter. The world seemed shocked, but it shouldn’t have been. China’s ascendancy was as imminent and predictable as Japan’s nascent slowing.

Recent international trade statistics corroborate what is obvious in other economic indicators: growth is slowing worldwide. For the trade stats, it’s a new phenomenon, but other, forward-looking data suggest that weakness will linger through the second half of this year. Governments, worried enough about local demand, are busy implementing trade promotion policies. Are they likely to succeed?

Of the myriad monthly indicators that market-watchers dissect, few generate the palpitations induced by labour force data – both before and after release. It’s no surprise. Job growth is the anchor of demand, one of the key determinants of economic well-being. A convincing recovery in employment has yet to occur, increasing the angst of the monthly labour-data vigil.

History will no doubt point to the US housing market as the hallmark of the past decade’s excesses. The heights achieved were only exceeded for drama by the spectacular and protracted plunge of the market, and the collateral damage sustained by the financial sector. Activity has been particularly weak since late 2008, and to date, there are scant signs of a reprieve. Is the carnage almost over?

Lambasting big-economy consumers for their excesses has become a popular recession-time sport. Chastened by the exposure of their self-engineered plight, many consumers have hunkered down, quietly working down excesses and deleveraging. Their activities are obvious in consumer spending data; this large chunk of the world economy has been a soft spot. Is the new prudence paying off?

Economic rebound, localized capacity constraints and base effects kept global inflation-chatter active in the opening months of this year. In recent weeks, there’s a kind of hush setting in on the topic. Have other issues crowded this one out, or is recent inflation performance telling a deeper story?

The pressure is rising. Slower growth is etched all over current data, dampening the bullish mood that dominated the airwaves in the first quarter. Markets are in yet another turbulent phase as we move into the post-stimulus phase of the rebound – perhaps the trickiest period in the past two years.

America’s obsession with vehicles was shaken by the onset of recession. Firms that were the icons of US auto production for multiple generations were suddenly on the brink of extinction. Hotly contested government bailouts bought them time, and sales rebounded handily – a great relief for Canadian auto sector exporters. But in June, US vehicle sales dipped again. Is this cause for concern?

Canada is capturing world attention on a number of fronts these days. Although better known for our diminutive, self-effacing persona, Canadians could be forgiven for taking special pride in key recent developments. These are especially welcome, given the general abundance of bad international news in the past 24 months, and are a boost to Canada ahead of the coming economic recovery.

Summer has arrived in the Northern hemisphere, and those expecting a quieter pace may get more than they bargained for. As we enter the season, a growing number of key international indicators are on the wane. One of the more dramatic is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an important barometer of global trade activity. In recent days, the Index has seen an alarming freefall. What’s going on?

Trade confidence is up? It hardly seems possible. Earlier this year, maybe, when a bevy of strong economic reports set the world abuzz with recovery-talk. But now, with heightened concern about Southern Europe’s public finances, worries about China’s performance, new cracks appearing in US demand, tumbling commodity prices and a stubbornly strong Canadian dollar? In this context, a rise in Canadian trade confidence seems out of place. Why the increase?

Weary of manifold dismal economic reports, solace-seekers have turned to the balm of Chinese data in the past 18 months. They haven’t been disappointed. But that may be changing. Recent stats are taking the shine off the impressive record, casting doubt on the fledgling global economic rebound.

Of all the indicators of Canada’s economic rebound, perhaps none is more convincing than StatCan’s Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). The Index has now risen for 11 consecutive months, at an impressive average monthly pace of 1%. In the latest survey, 8 of the 10 components increased, clearly a solid result. This indicator is on a roll, but is there a danger that it might actually roll over?

By now it is clear that the global recession is over. That means we are on our way back to normality, but there are many reasons to expect it to be a different sort of normality than many seem to expect.

For Canadian exporters, it was hard to hide from last year’s storm. Canada’s international sales experienced their biggest pounding in recent memory, and every industry was affected. The impact was greater for those on the leading edge of the storm. Is recovery likewise varied by industry?

News about worsening public finances in Western Europe rocked global financial markets last week, and revealed an underlying fragility in confidence. Apparently, patience with the on-again, off-again approach of policymakers to the problem zones wore thin. Was the reaction overdone, or overdue?

Up is in vogue again. Many economic indicators are pointing upward, and many analysts now have a good dose of up-timism. One of those is copper, the orange metal with the innate sense of the world economy’s near term path. Recent movements in copper prices suggest that the world economy is revving up for a very strong rebound. Is copper right again, or are we witnessing a rare false start?

It was the best of times. In late 2008, it turned into the worst of times. Then came abject pessimism, followed by a period of uncertainty and volatility. Sentiment was tentative as the world economy entered 2010, but the resumption of growth has lifted spirits, and prompted economy-watchers to hail the long-awaited recovery. Is this nascent rise the real thing, or does recovery still elude our grasp?

Think about Alberta, you think about oil and gas. Reserves in the feted oil sands are vast, rivalling those of Saudi Arabia. Just two years ago, widespread fear that the planet was running out of oil vaulted Alberta’s extensive and politically secure supplies to the centre of the global stage. With all the attention, it’s easy for the casual observer to forget Alberta’s other economy, and it’s potential.

India’s economy may have enormous future potential to grow. There may even be enough money available to create the infrastructure needed to facilitate that economic potential. But does India, with its storied recent history of political fragmentation, and in some cases outright gridlock, want economic progress and prosperity enough to overcome its inhibiting political legacy?

Explosive growth became the norm for India in the global economy’s boom years, and few pundits disagree that long run growth potential is better here than anywhere else. India’s prowess was tested in the global recession, but the subcontinent has rebounded handily. Its sights are now trained on longer term growth in an ambitious new 5-year plan. Will India achieve its high-growth objectives?

In economic banter, recovery is a word that has been ahead of its time for over a year. It was dusted off following the global plunge in output last year, and has been well-used since. But the debate on the timing of a convincing global recovery remains open. What do large-economy consumers think?

Northerners are now returning from the annual Spring Break trek to southern destinations. Once again, Caribbean nations extended a traditional warm welcome to visitors, although cooler weather and a not-too-hot world economy may have kept their numbers down. Caribbean countries have felt the ill effects of the global downturn directly. Are they poised to fully harness economic recovery?

Recent data have many pundits hailing emerging markets as the world economy’s new growth engine. Industrial production statistics are a key part of that argument. Do they indeed suggest that there is a 2-speed recovery underway, and that emerging markets are leading the charge?

“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril?

Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn?

Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball?

Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures?

Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi.

The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery?

There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year.

Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted?

One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects.

It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times?

It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway.

As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year?

If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects.

On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up.

A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon?

This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010.

Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery.

Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement.